From Crains Chicago Business

July 19, 2004
No election-ad boon here
Chicago to miss out on candidates' media spending
By JEREMY MULLMAN

Chicago television stations are out of the running in what1s shaping up to
be the most lucrative political season ever for advertising spending.
Campaign spending on television commercials nationally is likely to exceed
$1.2 billion this year, political consultants say. That would be nearly
double 20001s total.

President George W. Bush and his challenger, U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.,
already are attacking each other over the airwaves in battleground states
such as Michigan and Missouri, before either has formally won his party1s
nomination.
But the president1s apparent decision to concede Illinois to Sen. Kerry
means neither is advertising much in Chicago. That strategic twist, combined
with what has been a one-candidate U.S. Senate race and few well-funded
congressional races, is costing Chicago broadcasters tens of millions.
If Illinois were getting the attention Messrs. Bush and Kerry are giving
some nearby states, Chicago TV stations could expect to take in a total of
about $60 million this year in presidential campaign ad dollars alone,
according to station managers and ad buyers. The actual take is expected to
be less than 20001s $3 million, they say.
So far, total spending on political ads at local stations is running more
than 30% off the pace of 2002, when U.S. Senate and statewide offices were
up for grabs. Altogether, local stations expect to collect less than $20
million from political candidates this year, far below the $80 million they
might have reaped in a more competitive campaign year.
3It1s been a lackluster year,2 says Larry Wert, general manager of
WMAQ-TV/Channel 5.
Mr. Wert and his fellow station managers are longing for the lucrative
swing-state status they enjoyed as recently as 1992.
3Chicago was a battleground then,2 says political consultant Eric Adelstein,
the Illinois director of former President Bill Clinton1s 1992 bid. 3(The
campaign) spent upwards of $10 million in Chicago alone.2
Politically, however, Illinois isn1t the same.
Democrats Mr. Clinton and Al Gore won by wide margins in 1996 and 2000, and
Mr. Bush is concentrating his $215-million war chest in more competitive
states such as Florida, Ohio and Missouri. Sen. Kerry has followed suit.
Chicago will likely wind up with less than two-thirds of the presidential
campaign ad dollars reaped by stations in smaller markets like St. Louis,
despite ad rates that are twice as expensive. (Television executives predict
a $30-million haul for St. Louis.)
While the lack of a competitive presidential race didn1t surprise local
media executives, they weren1t prepared for a Senate race with only one
candidate.
The GOP has yet to replace nominee Jack Ryan, whose campaign imploded after
allegations made by his ex-wife in previously sealed court records were made
public. That leaves local broadcasters with no Republican nominee to buy ads
and a Democratic contender, state Sen. Barack Obama, who can afford to go
easy on campaign commercials.
At WBBM-TV/Channel 2, station manager Fran Preston says political ad
revenues are likely to fall 30% to 35% short of budget this year.
3We1re not going to meet our numbers, and that1s why,2 says Ms. Preston.
3It1s strange with the state being so out of the
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