AP via Belleville News Democrat:

Posted on Wed, Nov. 08, 2006

Blagojevich used money, message to paint Topinka into corner
CHRISTOPHER WILLS
Associated Press

CHICAGO - Judy Baar Topinka probably thought she entered the governor's race with a leg up among women and voters disgusted by government corruption.

Democratic incumbent Rod Blagojevich managed to wipe out her advantage among both groups.

Blagojevich talked unceasingly about what he's done to help women and families and all the new things he would do in a second term: children's health care, expanded preschool, access to birth control, equal wages for women, raising the minimum wage.

His strategy earned Blagojevich a second term, but did not repair his battered image with voters. He also faces a daunting list of promises to keep without bringing in new money from a tax increase.

But Blagojevich's win provides another lesson in the power of political money and leaves Republicans wondering what kind of candidate - if any - can compete for governor in Illinois.

A supporter of abortion rights and gay rights, Topinka might have been in a position to appeal to independent-minded female voters. But she also was playing the role of fiscal watchdog, and Blagojevich's many proposals forced her to make the difficult argument that they sounded nice but Illinois just couldn't afford them.

Women cast just over half of the votes Tuesday, and they clearly favored Blagojevich. He got 53 percent of the women's vote, compared to 36 percent for Topinka.

Topinka, the state treasurer, had hoped voters would find her frugality refreshingly honest - one more reason to trust her instead of a governor who promised to reform Illinois government but ended up as, like his predecessor, under federal investigation.

But Blagojevich managed to level the ethics playing field.

He relentlessly portrayed Topinka as a minion of former Republican Gov. George Ryan, who has been sentenced to more than six years in prison on federal corruption charges.

Although elected independently, Topinka suddenly became "George Ryan's treasurer" in millions of dollars worth of commercials. Ads showed her calling Ryan "a damn decent guy." Blagojevich linked Topinka to every bad thing that happened under Ryan.

Republican political consultant Glenn Hodas said Blagojevich couldn't fix the image problems created by a federal investigation, so he decided to make Topinka look just as bad.

"Most voters go, 'Oh, they're both corrupt. How else do I make my decision?'" Hodas said. "It was a masterstroke."

In the end, Blagojevich did better than Topinka among the 85 percent of voters who said corruption was "very" or "extremely" important. He got half their votes, while she got only 4 in 10.

Blagojevich will begin a second term in the shadow of a federal investigation that has produced a guilty plea by one of his political appointees and the indictment of a top friend and fundraiser. Polls show about half of voters disapprove of his performance as governor.

He'll end up with fewer votes this time than four years ago, as well as a state sharply divided geographically. Blagojevich got only 40 percent of the vote in Illinois' downstate counties. He lost Chicago's traditionally Republican collar counties even though Democrats in other statewide races dominated those counties.

All that might suggest a weakened governor unable to get what he wants in Springfield. But if George Ryan's experience is any guide, Blagojevich will see little erosion of his power.

He's still the governor, and that gives him enormous control over state money, jobs and which pieces of legislation get signed into law.

Democratic legislative leaders might buck Blagojevich at times, as they have in the past, but those decisions would likely be based on particular circumstances and not a general view that Blagojevich can't fight back.

Still, even Blagojevich supporters acknowledge his second term will present challenges. He has made big promises at a time when the state has no extra money, and he vows not to raise taxes.

"He's going to have to figure out how to keep the budget balanced but also add services and opportunities for the people of Illinois," said Rep. Lou Lang, D-Skokie.

Republicans, meanwhile, have to figure out how to compete in a state that seems increasingly Democratic.

Four years ago, their gubernatorial candidate was a squeaky-clean prosecutor with a cool, professional demeanor. This time, they went with a political insider known for her goofy, people-pleasing personality. Both were defeated, thanks in large part to their connections to George Ryan.

Republican activists had no simple answer for their electoral problems, but they said it would involve significant upheaval for the party.

"Everybody over the next few days is going to absorb this election and what it really means," said state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger, R-Elgin. "Electoral shockers are wake-up calls."