From the St. Louis Post Dispatch:

Blagojevich may see mandate, but others see hurdles for his second-term agenda
POST-DISPATCH SPRINGFIELD BUREAU
11/12/2006

SPRINGFIELD, ILL. — Emboldened by his easy re-election, Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich will begin this week pushing a second-term agenda that takes a more-of-the-same approach to his second term: more pay for minimum wage workers, more health care and education spending, more creative new economic programs.

But Republicans, further weakened by the Democrats' sweep, are predicting that what may be in store under Blagojevich are more long-term financial problems for the state, more negative campaigning in two years — and more of the kind of political scandal that is starting to look endemic in Illinois.

The Legislature returns to Springfield on Tuesday for its six-day "veto session,'' in which lawmakers consider action on gubernatorial vetoes and other issues. Blagojevich said in a speech in Wood River last week that he intended to launch immediately into one of the issues that helped him win on Tuesday: upping the state's minimum wage, already above the national rate, by another $1, to $7.50.

Whether he can get that and other goals started now — or if he will have to wait until his second term formally begins in January with a new, more Democratic Legislature — he has made it clear he intends to continue the kind of activist, progressive social and economic initiatives that partly defined his first term.

He is talking less about what critics say is the financial recklessness that also defined that term, with the state backloading its pension debt, using long-term borrowing to pay short-term bills and leaving many bills late or unpaid.

"(Democrats) certainly did well in this election, … but they have to be careful," said state Sen. Frank Watson, R-Greenville, the Senate's GOP leader. "Democrats are known to do things that could swing the pendulum back the other way.'' His party lost five state Senate seats on Tuesday, which will give the Democratic majority there the power to pass virtually anything it wants without Republican input.

"Sometimes, they don't seem to be able to help themselves,'' said Watson, who predicted an avalanche of "new programs and new spending'' even as the state's Medicaid backlog and other unpaid bills pile up. "The governor cannot continue to promote this kind of financial irresponsibility.''

Blagojevich also is talking less than he did the first time around about reining in Illinois' no-holds-barred campaign finance system — a system that allowed him to raise more than $20 million in the election, much of it from corporations that do business with the state.

A campaign reform group is asking Blagojevich to unilaterally halt his own fundraising. The group is part of a growing chorus of voices that say it's time for Illinois to put the brakes on the unlimited fundraising that has been at the center of multiple scandals.

Even former GOP Gov. Jim Edgar — long an opponent of proposed campaign fundraising limits — said Friday that he was "reassessing my whole thought on this'' after watching Blagojevich swamp Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka with an $18 million negative-ad television blitz that many say drowned out any substantive discussion of issues. "Something probably has to be done,'' Edgar said.

Ironic strategy

Tuesday's victory opens a new chapter in what has already been an unlikely political tale for Blagojevich, 49, the son of a Yugoslavian immigrant.

Blagojevich had served relatively anonymous terms as a Chicago state legislator and congressman before landing at the center of the state's political scene in 2002, becoming the first Democratic governor in more than two decades.

Some of his first-term campaign promises were quickly implemented, such as his vow to raise the state's minimum wage, which went to $6.50 from the base federal standard of $5.15. He also followed through on initiatives for guaranteed health care and early education.

However, his promise to restore trust in honest government after the scandal-ridden tenure of ex-Gov. George Ryan arguably hasn't happened. The U.S. Attorney's Office in Chicago has alleged in several indictments that people around Blagojevich have engaged in the same kinds of fundraising, procurement and hiring shenanigans that brought down Ryan's administration.

Nonetheless, Blagojevich won re-election this year largely by running against what one political expert called "the ghost of George Ryan'' (who is still alive and slated to start a six-year federal prison term in January). Blagojevich ran television commercials showing old footage of Topinka and Ryan at political events, including a now-famous shot of a polka they danced together.

To some, it was an ironic strategy for Blagojevich, given his own administration's problems this year. The U.S. attorney's office has alleged that Blagojevich's top fundraiser and others used their clout to try to squeeze state contractors for political donations. Blagojevich hasn't been accused of wrongdoing, but the widespread belief that his administration is under a federal magnifying glass these days has been the one shadow over Tuesday's victory.

"I think there are an awful lot of Democratic politicians who would probably pass if Rod Blagojevich asked them to dance the polka,'' Kent Redfield of the Institute for Legislative Studies at the University of Illinois at Springfield said in a panel discussion on Friday.

Also in that Springfield political panel, Edgar, the former Republican governor and a key Topinka supporter, predicted that the negative tenor of the campaign set an example for future politicians of how to win in Illinois. "We're going to see a lot more negative commercials in the next election,'' he said. "Negative commercials won the election.''

Financial limits

Blagojevich has also promised since before his first term not to raise taxes, and he continues to reject all talk of higher sales or income taxes. Critics, though, say he bent that promise with state fee increases on businesses and other targeted areas in his first term.

Much of Blagojevich's seemingly paradoxical achievement — initiating expensive new programs in tight budget times without general tax increases — was accomplished with those fee increases, as well as one-time revenue boosts such as the restructuring of the state's pension debt, state payroll cuts and the gathering up of unused cash from various state funds.

Some observers point out that Blagojevich hasn't indicated he's going to stop pushing costly new social programs, yet he may be running out of creative new ways to fund them.

"What he's going to be faced with is a budget situation worse, in some ways, than the one he faced before,'' said Chris Mooney, a political scientist at the University of Illinois at Springfield. "He's already gone through the couch cushions.''

The Legislature returns to Springfield for its veto session Tuesday through Thursday, then again on Nov. 28-30.

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